Standard Chartered forecasts that global oil prices will stabilize around $80 per barrel in the short term, remaining largely insulated from theoretical “transit tolls” proposed amid the collapsing U.S.-Iran ceasefire. While ongoing regional escalations continue to support a short-term war premium, analysts anticipate prices will gradually taper toward $70 per barrel by the end of the year as global supply chains recalibrate.
The market experienced a massive price surge on Tuesday following Iran’s declaration that it has officially closed the Strait of Hormuz, alongside reported military strikes hitting two UAE supertankers in Omani waters. In response, Brent crude jumped to $87.23 per barrel, its highest point since an interim peace deal was signed on June 17.
Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s public pronouncements suggesting a 20 percent reimbursement tax on all cargo transiting the strategic chokepoint—which would add roughly $34 million to every supertanker voyage—Standard Chartered has excluded these figures from its financial modeling. Financial analysts note that the unpredictable and shifting public declarations mean there is no administrative certainty that a formal toll structure will ever manifest, preventing it from driving long-term pricing equilibrium.
